Rotation #535: NBA Friday Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8 ET - Notice the line flip here and yes the status of Kawhi Leonard is up in the air but the Clippers won Game 1 without him and then lost Game 2 with him. But why are the Mavs now laying 4.5 just because they are at home? These teams were both about the same on the road as at home. That said, the Clips went off the board as a favorite in Game 2 because of Leonard playing but now they are catching 4.5 points on the road even though he might play again plus even though the Clips won Game 1 when he did not play. I like value and this one shapes up to be a highly competitive series with possible tight finishes just like the 3 point win the Mavs just had. If you look at the Mavs last 6 home games, they are 5-1 SU but with 1 of those wins in OT and 2 of the other wins by just a bucket. There is a lot of value here with 4.5 points. The Clippers have won a modest 5 of 9 games but 2 of those 4 losses by 3 or less points. Also, one of the only two bigger losses was a season finale after Clips already clinched the division. The Clips were outscored by 18 points from 3 point land in the 3 points loss in Game 2 and, overall, it was unusually poor shooting that did in LA in that game. In Game 1 they shot very well and never trailed and led by as many as 29. After also having more shots from the field in Game 2 but shooting poorly, there is solid value here and we'll take it with the points. LA CLIPPERS (+)

Rotation #19: NHL Friday OVER 5.5 -118 in Nashville Predators vs Vancouver Canucks @ 7:30 ET - The Canucks are expected to have DeSmith in goal again here. I know Demko did travel with the team but he is expected to miss more time and is merely traveling to be with the team and possibly help DeSmith with preparation, etc as much as he can. The fact is DeSmith struggled badly in Game 2 and now he goes on the road. Keep in mind, DeSmith had one good start at Edmonton but in his other 3 starts this month he has allowed 15 goals on 74 shots! Yes that is a save percentage under .800 and you know the Predators will be fired up here at home and will be pressuring him early and often. At the same time, the Canucks will have to now rely more on offensive prowess considering the goalie situation. Look for an entertaining affair here as I expect the Preds to pepper DeSmith with shots here but also expect the Canucks to battle back and you are looking at a game that could get to 3-3 at some point. This total at 5.5 goals is a great value should we see a 4-2 type game in this one. But both clubs enjoy offensive success in the zone here. The Canucks had scored at least 3 goals in 14 of 19 games prior to that 4-1 loss in Game 2 of this series. The Preds are rolling with confidence off a 4-1 road win and are back on home ice where they have averaged scoring 4 goals per game last dozen games! Per all of the above, I expect 7 or more here and we have the added cushion of 6 goals also producing a winning ticket here. I won't pass up this opportunity! OVER 5.5 -118 in Nashville

Rotation #962: MLB Friday Baltimore Orioles -1.5 -125 vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles are coming back from a west coast trip but had a day game Wednesday so their rest situation is actually better than the A's who played last night in the Bronx and got an upset win over the Yankees despite being outhit. Speaking of being outhit, the Athletics have now scored 3 or less runs in 7 straight games and 9 of their last 10 games! In those 9 games, Oakland has averaged 2.3 runs scored per game. Note that the Orioles, on the other hand, have won 8 of 10 games and scored an average of 6 runs in their last 15 games! 6 to 2 sounds about right to me here and truly this should be a blowout win for the hosts. Baltimore's slugging percentage is 115 points higher than that of Oakland so far this season. Also, Corbin Burnes has a respectable 2.76 ERA this season and a 3-0 record while allowing only 22 hits and striking out 29 in his 29 innings. Conversely, Oakland's Ross Stripling has give up 37 hits in his 28.2 innings and he is 0-5 with a 5.34 ERA. The O's are perfect in Burnes starts (5-0) while Stripling has taken the loss (0-5) in all of his 5 starts! Also, 5 of Oakland's last 6 losses by 2 or more runs. 14 of the Orioles 16 wins - including 7 of 8 at home - have been by 2+ runs! In other words, no hesitation in laying the run line here! BALTIMORE -1.5 -125

Rotation #206821: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Friday OVER 2.5 -102 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Voluntari @ 1 ET - This one can be filed under the "someone knows something" category! Note that this one features Voluntari off a scoreless draw and Dinamo having seen each of their last 4 matches as a host total 2 or less goals. So, why is this total set at 2.5 goals? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you. Over is the play here. This one features two teams desperate for a full 3 points in the table and I also can not foresee either club being held off the scoresheet here. Looking for at least a 2-1 final. Note that 3 straight meetings between these clubs had totaled at least 3 goals prior to a 1-0 Dinamo win in the most recent match-up. Dinamo is off a 2-1 loss and has allowed 8 goals in last 6 matches. Voluntari, though from the Bucuresti area, is still playing on enemy turf for this match and their away matches have been high-scoring. Voluntari has gone over the total in 5 straight matches away from home. Those 5 matches have averaged 4.4 goals apiece. That run reaches 6 in a row here! OVER 2.5 -102 in Dinamo Bucuresti

Rotation #200049: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3.5 -110 in Newcastle United vs Sheffield United @ 10 AM ET - Big total here but fully justified! Newcastle is angry off a shutout loss on the road. Now they are back home and favored by 2 goals on the goal line here. They will take advantage of facing a Sheffield United club that, amazingly, has allowed 92 goals in 34 matches this season! Newcastle is known for scoring well at home and they have tallied 43 in their 17 matches as a host this season. They could get this total all by themselves as scoring 4 would not surprise me. Newcastle won the reverse fixture 8-0 this season! Surely Sheffield would like revenge for that bloodbath at home but they are catching Newcastle as the wrong time to exact revenge. Sheffield should get on the scoresheet here as they have been finding the back of the net with regularity. The problem is they can stop no one and that is why I am looking for at least a 3-1 final here! Sheffield has played 16 matches since the calendar turned the page to 2024 and 14 of the 16 totaled at least 4 goals! Sheffield has scored 11 goals in last 7 matches and they will push hard here as they have nothing to lose. However, this Newcastle club is getting a little healthier again and they have the striking ability to make Sheffield pay early and often in this one on the counterattack. No club in the league has scored more than Newcastle's 43 in home matches. No club in the league is anywhere close to conceding 92 goals on the campaign like Sheffield. Look for another wild one here as the hosts will not let up here coming off a 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace. They are fired up to respond on their home pitch. OVER 3.5 -110 in Newcastle United